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Research

In malaria epidemiology, interpolation frameworks based on available observations are critical for policy decisions and interpreting disease burden. Updating our understanding of the empirical evidence across different populations, settings, and timeframes is crucial to improving inference for supporting public health.

The Global Disease Modelling group informs development and implementation of drugs, medical treatments and non-medical interventions to effectively tackle disease. They build mathematical models of diseases, designed to take into account the complex constellation of interactions between pathogens, humans, diseases, the environment and entire healthcare systems.

Research

Seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) is recommended for disease control in settings with moderate to high Plasmodium falciparum transmission and currently depends on the administration of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine plus amodiaquine. 

Research

The World Health Organization recommends perennial malaria chemoprevention (PMC), generally using sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) to children at high risk of severe Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Currently, PMC is given up to age two in perennial transmission settings. However, no recommendation exists for perennial settings with seasonal variation in transmission intensity, recently categorized as 'sub-perennial'.

Research

Malaria remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality and is responsible for over 0.5 million annual deaths globally. During the first two decades of this century, scale-up of a range of tools was associated with significant reductions in malaria mortality in the primary risk group, young African children.

People

Epke is a veterinarian that specializes in infectious disease control, and holds a PhD in human neglected tropical disease (NTD) control and elimination.

Research

Malaria remains a leading cause of illness and death globally, with countries in sub-Saharan Africa bearing a disproportionate burden. Global high-resolution maps of malaria prevalence, incidence, and mortality are crucial for tracking spatially heterogeneous progress against the disease and to inform strategic malaria control efforts. We present the latest such maps, the first since 2019, which cover the years 2000–22. The maps are accompanied by administrative-level summaries and include estimated COVID-19 pandemic-related impacts on malaria burden. 

Research

When models are used to inform decision-making, both their strengths and limitations must be considered. Using malaria as an example, we explain how and why models are limited and offer guidance for ensuring a model is well-suited for its intended purpose.

Research

New malaria vaccine development builds on groundbreaking recommendations and roll-out of two approved pre-erythrocytic vaccines (PEVs); RTS,S/AS01 and R21/Matrix-M. Whilst these vaccines are effective in reducing childhood malaria within yearly routine immunization programs or seasonal vaccination, there is little evidence on how different PEV efficacies, durations of protection, and spacing between doses influence the potential to avert uncomplicated and severe childhood malaria. 

Research

Individual-based models of infectious disease dynamics commonly use network structures to represent human interactions. Network structures can vary in complexity, from single-layered with homogeneous mixing to multi-layered with clustering and layer-specific contact weights. Here we assessed policy-relevant consequences of network choice by simulating different network structures within an established individual-based model of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics.