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Temporal analysis of respiratory virus epidemics in Victoria over winter 2024

During winter months of temperate regions, concurrent epidemics of multiple respiratory pathogens can occur, causing periods of increased clinical burden. Case time series, which are predominantly used to monitor infection levels, can exhibit substantial noise and day-of-the-week effects, limiting the visual interpretation of trends in raw data.

A time-varying geospatial model of habitat suitability for Japanese encephalitis virus vectors and vertebrate hosts in Australia

In the austral summer of 2021-2022, Australia experienced an unprecedented Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) outbreak, with detections over 3000 km south of previous occurrences. Given the limited knowledge of JEV transmission ecology in Australia, we developed geospatial models of transmission risk to support the public health response. We created time-varying habitat suitability models for suspected mosquito vectors and ardeid hosts using month-scaled occurrence and covariate data from 2000-2023.

Predicting immune protection against outcomes of infectious disease from population-level effectiveness data with application to COVID-19

Quantifying the extent to which previous infections and vaccinations confer protection against future infection or disease outcomes is critical to managing the transmission and consequences of infectious diseases. We present a general statistical model for predicting the strength of protection conferred by different immunising exposures (numbers, types, and strains of both vaccines and infections), against multiple outcomes of interest, whilst accounting for immune waning. 

Modelling the spread and control of a malaria vector

Malaria remains one of the leading causes of death, particularly in Africa and among children.

Modelling to support Australia's COVID-19 response

Nick Golding BSc DPhil Honorary Research Fellow Nick.Golding@thekids.org.au Honorary Research Fellow Professor Nick Golding is the UWA Chair in

The Vector Atlas

The Vector Atlas aims to update and create vector species maps and spatial products that improve disease prediction, mitigation and preparedness.

Expanding Tidy Data Principles to Facilitate Missing Data Exploration, Visualization and Assessment of Imputations

Despite the large body of research on missing value distributions and imputation, there is comparatively little literature with a focus on how to make it easy to handle, explore, and impute missing values in data. This paper addresses this gap. The new methodology builds upon tidy data principles, with the goal of integrating missing value handling as a key part of data analysis workflows.

Estimating the potential malaria morbidity and mortality avertable by the US President's Malaria Initiative in 2025: a geospatial modelling analysis

Since its inception in 2005, the US President's Malaria Initiative (PMI) has played a major role in the reductions in malaria morbidity and mortality observed across Africa. With the status of PMI funding and operations currently uncertain, we aimed to quantify the impact that a fully functioning PMI would have on malaria cases and deaths in Africa during 2025. 

Temporal trends in test-seeking behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic

Cases identified through mass testing represent only a fraction of infections, depending on the propensity of infected individuals to seek testing. Quantifying the variation in test-seeking behaviour through time or between population subgroups provides important information on testing uptake and supports epidemiological analyses of case data that may otherwise be biased.

COVID-19 vaccine coverage targets to inform reopening plans in a low incidence setting

Since the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in 2019 through to mid-2021, much of the Australian population lived in a COVID-19-free environment. This followed the broadly successful implementation of a strong suppression strategy, including international border closures. With the availability of COVID-19 vaccines in early 2021, the national government sought to transition from a state of minimal incidence and strong suppression activities to one of high vaccine coverage and reduced restrictions but with still-manageable transmission.